A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
